S&P 500 Hits New Highs — Yet Few Stocks Are Leading the Way
- Jul 1, 2025
- 27 min read
Tuesday, 1st of July
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What's Moving The Market
S&P 500 at Record Highs
The S&P 500 is trading at all-time highs and could be on the verge of its seventh major breakout since 1990, according to Bank of America. Yet, the rally is resting on a narrow base: only 22 stocks in the index are currently at record highs — a historically low figure. For comparison, 67 stocks hit all-time highs at the start of 2024, and even during the pandemic rally in August 2020, the number stood at 54. In past breakouts, market participation was much broader — with 97 stocks reaching record highs in March 2013, 82 in May 2007, 66 in November 1998, and 51 in February 1991.
AI and Tech Leading the Charge
The current rally is being driven almost entirely by the tech and AI sectors. Since the market’s low on April 8, the combined market capitalisation of the so-called “Magnificent Seven” has surged by $4.7 trillion, pushing their total value to nearly $18 trillion. Outside this elite group, several names have posted eye-catching gains: Coinbase is up over 140%, Micron more than 90%, AMD 87%, and Palantir over 81%.
Deutsche Bank: Buy Signal, But Far from Euphoria
Deutsche Bank sees the S&P 500’s break above its February highs as a clear technical buy signal. However, analysts argue that investor sentiment remains far from euphoric. There are few signs of excessive risk-taking, and equity positioning — across both retail investors and systematic models — is moderate. That suggests there is still room for additional upside, with plenty of capital on the sidelines to support a continued rally.
Bubble Risk in H2: Bank of America Favors Bonds, Gold, and Global Stocks
Bank of America remains overweight in U.S. Treasuries, international equities, and gold for the second half of the year. Analysts view U.S. government bonds as an attractive buy, as the macroeconomic environment cools, the Fed is expected to cut rates, and yields should decline accordingly. The main risk for bonds, however, is a potential stock market bubble.
The long-standing outperformance of U.S. equities versus international markets may begin to fade, especially as fiscal stimulus shifts increasingly to Europe and China.
Gold continues to be seen as the best hedge against a weakening U.S. dollar—a scenario that would also benefit commodities and emerging markets. While BofA's trading indicators are approaching tactical sell signals, speculative bubbles like the current one often defy typical patterns. As long as U.S. monthly job gains don’t drop below 100,000 and long-term bond yields stay below 5 percent, the rally may persist.
Looking ahead, BofA sees a high risk of a speculative bubble in the second half of the year. A pivot by Trump and Powell—from tariffs toward tax cuts and rate cuts—could intentionally weaken the dollar and spark a boom to reduce U.S. debt burdens. The recommended strategy: a “barbell positioning” approach that combines U.S. growth stocks on one end with global value stocks on the other.
Last Week: Markets End June Strong, But Caution Lingers
U.S. markets wrapped up the final week of June with solid gains. The S&P 500 rose nearly 2% for the week and over 14% for the first half of 2025, marking one of its best starts in recent years. Tech stocks continued to lead, with investors rotating into AI-related names and semiconductors.
Geopolitical tensions — particularly surrounding Iran — eased, helping to steady oil prices and reduce volatility. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming testimony and the release of May PCE inflation data are now in focus, as markets assess the path for interest rates.
Globally, European and Asian indices also posted moderate gains, supported by improving sentiment and hopes for policy easing later this year. Still, economic data has shown signs of cooling, raising questions about the durability of the rally heading into Q3.
Key Index Moves (Weekly)
S&P 500: ▲ ~3.4%
Nasdaq Composite: ▲ ~4.2%
Dow Jones Industrial Average: ▲ ~3.8%
DAX (Germany): ▲ ~0.7%
Nikkei 225 (Japan): ▲ ~1.4%
Shanghai Composite (China): ▼ ~0.7%
Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong): ▼ ~0.2%
Bitcoin (BTC): ▲ ~7%
Gold (Spot): ▼ ~2.3%
Reported Quarterly Earnings
FedEx (FDX)
Q4 2025 Financial Highlights:
Revenue: $22.2 billion, slightly above analyst estimates of $21.8 billion.
Adjusted Earnings Per Share (EPS): $6.07, exceeding expectations of $5.87.
Net Income: $1.65 billion, a 13% increase year-over-year.
Operating Margin: Improved to 7.0%, up from 6.3% in the previous year.
Q1 2026 Outlook:
Revenue Growth: Projected to be flat to up 2% year-over-year.
Adjusted EPS: Forecasted between $3.40 and $4.00, below analyst expectations of $4.05.
The company anticipates a $170 million headwind from international exports, especially in the Trans-Pacific market, due to global trade policy impacts.
Strategic Initiatives:
Cost Reduction: FedEx achieved $2.2 billion in cost reductions in fiscal 2025 and plans to save an additional $1 billion in fiscal 2026 through its DRIVE and Network 2.0 transformation programs.
Capital Expenditures: Expected to be $4.5 billion in fiscal 2026, up from $4.1 billion, reflecting improved capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns: Returned approximately $4.3 billion to shareholders in fiscal 2025 through stock repurchases and dividends.
Macroeconomic Challenges:
FedEx is facing challenges due to President Trump's global trade and tariff policies, which have led to a sharp decline in freight volumes from China to the U.S., particularly affecting the company's most profitable intercontinental lane. The removal of the "de minimis" customs exemption has further impacted Chinese e-commerce platforms and, consequently, FedEx's operations.
Market Reaction:
Despite the positive earnings, FedEx shares declined by approximately 5% following the announcement. The decline was attributed to the company's decision not to provide full-year guidance for fiscal 2026, breaking a 13-year precedent. Management cited ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties, particularly related to global trade policies and tariffs, as reasons for withholding the forecast.
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General Mills (GIS)
Q4 2025 Financial Highlights:
Revenue: $4.56 billion, a 3% year-over-year decline, slightly below analyst expectations of $4.6 billion.
Adjusted EPS: $0.74, surpassing the projected $0.71 but down from $1.01 in the prior year.
Net Income: $294 million, a 47% decrease compared to the same quarter last year.
Operating Profit: $504 million, down 35% year-over-year.
Fiscal 2026 Outlook. General Mills anticipates a challenging fiscal 2026, projecting:
Adjusted EPS: A decline of 10% to 15% from fiscal 2025's $4.21.
Organic Net Sales: Flat to a 1% increase.
The company attributes this outlook to ongoing economic uncertainties, including fluctuating consumer demand and increased competition from private-label brands.
Strategic Initiatives. To counteract these challenges, General Mills is focusing on:
Product Innovation: Launching new products and renovating existing ones, such as Häagen-Dazs stick bars, to drive growth.
Pet Food Expansion: National launch of Blue Buffalo fresh pet food, aiming to capitalize on the growing pet humanization trend.
Cost Savings: Implementing cost-saving initiatives targeting $100 million in savings.
Market Reaction:
Following the earnings report, General Mills' stock declined approximately 5%, reaching a five-year low of $50.77. The stock has fallen nearly 20% year-to-date, reflecting investor concerns over the company's profitability and growth prospects.
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Micron Technologies (MU)
Financial Highlights:
Revenue: $9.30 billion, up 37% year-over-year and 15% sequentially, surpassing the consensus estimate of $8.83 billion.
Non-GAAP EPS: $1.91, exceeding the forecast of $1.57.
Gross Margin: 39%, up 110 basis points sequentially.
Operating Cash Flow: $4.61 billion, compared to $3.94 billion in the prior quarter.
Free Cash Flow: Over $1.9 billion.
Business Segment Performance:
Data Center Revenue: More than doubled year-over-year, reaching a quarterly record.
High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM): Revenue increased nearly 50% sequentially; HBM supply is fully booked for 2025, with strong demand expected into 2026.
DRAM Revenue: Achieved an all-time high, driven by AI-related demand.
NAND Revenue: Experienced strong sequential growth.
Outlook & Strategic Initiatives:
Q4 2025 Guidance: Revenue projected at $10.7 billion (±$300 million); EPS expected at $2.50 (±$0.15); gross margin forecasted at 42% (±1%).
Investment Plans: Announced a $200 billion investment over the next 20 years, including $150 billion in manufacturing and $50 billion in R&D, to expand U.S. semiconductor production and enhance research efforts.
Market Reaction & Analyst Sentiment:
Stock Performance: Despite strong earnings, Micron's stock experienced a slight decline, closing at $126.27, down 0.52% in regular trading and a further 1.28% in after-hours trading.
Analyst Ratings: Analysts remain optimistic, with 85% assigning a Buy rating. Price targets have been raised by several firms, including Piper Sandler ($165), Susquehanna ($160), and KeyBanc ($160), citing strong AI-related growth.
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Nike (NKE)
Financial Highlights:
Revenue: $11.1 billion, a 12% year-over-year decline, but above analyst expectations of $10.72 billion.
Earnings per Share (EPS): $0.14, down from $0.99 in the prior year, yet surpassing estimates of $0.11.
Net Income: $211 million, a significant drop from $1.5 billion the previous year.
Regional Sales Declines: North America (-11%), Greater China (-21%), EMEA (-9%), and APLA (-8%).
Nike Direct Sales: Decreased by 14% to $4.4 billion.
Wholesale Revenue: Down 9% to $6.4 billion.
Strategic Initiatives:
"Win Now" Strategy: CEO Elliott Hill emphasized this approach, focusing on sports-centric product innovation, marketing revamps, and strengthening wholesale partnerships.
"Sport Offense" Realignment: Aimed at accelerating the "Win Now" actions by aligning teams to lead with a focus on sports.
Tariff Impact and Mitigation:
Projected Tariff Costs: CFO Matt Friend indicated an anticipated $1 billion impact from U.S. tariffs.
Mitigation Strategies: Plans include diversifying supply chains to reduce reliance on China (currently 16% of U.S. footwear imports), implementing phased price increases starting in fall 2025, and exploring
Outlook:
Q1 2026 Forecast: Nike expects a mid-single-digit revenue decline, an improvement over the 12% drop in Q4 2025.
Gross Margin: Anticipated to expand by approximately 10 to 30 basis points in fiscal 2026.
Market Reaction:
Stock Performance: Despite the earnings decline, Nike's stock rose over 10% in after-hours trading, reflecting investor optimism about the company's turnaround efforts.
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Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA)
Financial Highlights:
Revenue: $39.0 billion, a 7.2% increase year-over-year, surpassing analyst expectations of $36.84 billion.
Net Loss: $175 million (or $0.20 per share), compared to net earnings of $344 million ($0.40 per share) in the same quarter last year.
Adjusted EPS: $0.38, down from $0.63 a year ago but exceeding the consensus estimate of $0.34.
Operating Income: $53 million, down from $111 million in the prior-year quarter.
Adjusted Operating Income: $558 million, compared to $613 million a year ago.
Free Cash Flow: $336 million, a $2 million improvement year-over-year.
Segment Performance:
U.S. Retail Pharmacy: Sales rose 7.8% to $30.72 billion, marking the ninth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.
International: Sales increased 7.8% to $6.17 billion.
U.S. Healthcare: Sales slightly declined to $2.10 billion from $2.13 billion, primarily due to decreased revenue from VillageMD.
Strategic Initiatives:
Cost-Cutting Measures: Implementation of a $1 billion cost-reduction plan, including store closures and workforce restructuring.
VillageMD Impairment: A $5.8 billion impairment charge was taken on VillageMD, with strategic options, including a potential sale, under evaluation.
Pending Acquisition: Walgreens is set to be acquired by Sycamore Partners for $10 billion, with the deal expected to close by the end of 2025.
Market Reaction:
Despite the net loss, Walgreens' stock experienced a modest increase, reflecting investor optimism about the company's cost-saving initiatives and the impending acquisition.
Analysts View: Upgrades and Downgrades
Apple (AAPL)
J.P. Morgan analyst Samik Chatterjee has lowered the price target for Apple from $240 to $230 but maintains an "Overweight" rating on the stock. He is updating his revenue and earnings forecasts for Apple to reflect a short-term weakening in consumer demand for iPhones, which he believes will lead to softer demand drivers in the second half of the year. The analyst is reducing his demand projections for the iPhone 17 series, citing ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty and a “modest digestion” following a demand pull-forward driven by purchases ahead of anticipated tariff-related price increases.
J.P. Morgan’s more cautious view on iPhone 17 volumes is accompanied by unchanged expectations for a stronger cycle with the iPhone 18 series, which is expected to include the launch of a foldable phone and further advances in AI capabilities. Chatterjee believes Apple’s near-term demand drivers remain “resilient” thanks to pull-forward effects and continued support from subsidies in China.
Barclays analyst Tim Long remains negative on Apple stock despite its underperformance so far this year. In his view, investors need to pay closer attention to the fact that iPhone sales are no longer growing, that the company’s services business is “highly concentrated and at risk,” and that “no other products meaningfully matter for the stock.” He states that he still “doesn’t like” the Apple stock and maintains an "Underweight" rating with a price target of $173.
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ASML (ASML)
Jefferies analyst Janardan Menon has downgraded ASML from "Buy" to "Hold," while raising the price target from €660 to €690. The analyst forecasts a 1 percent decline in wafer fabrication equipment demand in 2026, in contrast to the broader market consensus, which expects double-digit growth. His negative outlook stems from a contrarian expectation of a 16 percent drop in DRAM wafer fab equipment demand in 2026, along with a further decline in Chinese wafer fab investments.
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Carnival (CCL)
Barclays analyst Brandt Montour has raised the price target for Carnival from $30 to $33 and maintains an "Overweight" rating on the stock following the company’s second-quarter report. The cruise operator delivered “clean” results that came in above expectations. The analyst notes that Carnival’s “more confident tone” regarding lower-income consumers, long-term goals, and the new loyalty programme should all help provide the company with positive momentum.
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Citigroup (C)
Ebrahim Poonawala, analyst at Bank of America, has raised the price target for Citigroup from $89 to $100 and maintains a "Buy" rating on the stock. While he describes the bank’s turnaround as “one of the most complex in the corporate world,” he notes that since unveiling her strategic vision in 2022, CEO Jane Fraser has taken steps that give Citigroup a strong chance of becoming competitive. Over the past year, each of the bank’s five business segments has improved its profitability. The analyst has increased his EPS estimate for fiscal year 2026 from $9.85 to $10. He also believes the outlook for Citigroup’s return on tangible common equity (RoTCE) is becoming increasingly clear.
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Coinbase (COIN)
Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani has reaffirmed his "Outperform" rating on Coinbase and raised the price target from $310 to $510. He describes the crypto trading platform as the “most misunderstood company” within his digital assets coverage. Despite multiple growth drivers, consensus sentiment remains bearish toward what he calls the largest crypto universal bank.
According to Chhugani, Coinbase is the only crypto firm in the S&P 500, dominates the U.S. crypto trading market, operates the largest stablecoin business among exchanges, leads in institutional crypto services, has acquired the world’s largest crypto options exchange, and runs the largest and fastest Ethereum-based chain used for tokenisation.
He notes that Coinbase continues to defy bearish analyst theses, as its market share remains resilient despite the emergence of new competitors. Even upcoming crypto product launches from traditional brokerage firms are unlikely to offer complete solutions, making them less competitive than Coinbase's offerings. Furthermore, the company is expected to benefit from the upcoming GENIUS Act — which introduces a mandate for the stablecoin industry — as well as the CLARITY Act, aimed at strengthening regulation for digital assets.
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Constellation Brands (STZ)
UBS analyst Peter Grom has lowered the price target for Constellation Brands from $205 to $195 but maintains a "Buy" rating on the stock ahead of the company’s first-quarter report on July 1. He does not believe the report will act as a positive catalyst for the stock, as near-term conditions remain challenging — although much of this is already anticipated and priced in.
While a return to historical growth levels seems unlikely given the current industry headwinds, UBS still sees a path toward low single-digit organic revenue growth and mid-single-digit EPS growth over time.
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Crocs (CROX)
Bank of America analyst Christopher Nardone has lowered the price target for Crocs from $140 to $135 but maintains a "Buy" rating on the stock. From the analyst’s perspective, the stock remains attractively valued for low to mid-single-digit revenue growth and an operating margin of 22.5 to 23 percent over the next two to three years, even as a more cautious U.S. wholesale environment is now priced in. The analyst expects earnings per share of $13 for the 2025 financial year.
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eBay (EBAY)
Wells Fargo analyst Ken Gawrelski has raised the price target for eBay from $63 to $66 and maintains an "Equal Weight" rating on the stock. The analyst admits to having "admittedly missed the outperformance" of eBay shares. Gawrelski believes that a breakthrough in U.S. gross merchandise volume is necessary for a further revaluation.
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Estée Lauder (EL)
HSBC analyst Erwan Rambourg has upgraded Estée Lauder from "Hold" to "Buy" and raised the price target from $80 to $99. After months of investor disinterest, the analyst believes the market may have reached a bottom. He suggests that the scale of Estée Lauder’s restructuring programme and the weakness of the U.S. dollar could signal an end to earnings downgrades. According to HSBC, a combination of factors — including the passing of Leonard Lauder, hopes for a stabilisation in Chinese consumer demand, the weaker dollar, and “American resilience” — supports the upgrade.
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FedEx (FDX)
Barclays analyst Brandon Oglenski has lowered the price target for FedEx from $330 to $320 but maintains an "Overweight" rating on the logistics company's stock following the Q4 results. He notes that the company’s guidance is supported by cost-cutting efforts and network consolidation, and believes the spin-off of the freight division could prove beneficial for shareholders.
Citigroup analyst Ariel Rosa has reduced the price target for FedEx from $267 to $259 but maintains a "Buy" rating after the Q4 report. In his view, the company’s “weak” guidance—mainly due to tariff-related headwinds—overshadows otherwise “decent” Q4 results, as “uncertainty remains high.” Management highlighted significant operating leverage and anticipated earnings growth if tariff tensions ease and macroeconomic conditions improve. Still, Rosa notes that investors “don’t seem willing to wait,” given the mixed nature of the results.
J.P. Morgan analyst Brian Ossenbeck has raised the price target for FedEx from $260 to $290 and continues to rate the stock "Overweight" after Q4. He expects the stock to underperform in the near term, following management’s decision—after 13 years—to not issue full-year guidance and to deliver a Q1 forecast well below consensus. Ossenbeck also cites several unanswered questions from the earnings call, including the impact of a new Amazon contract for oversized goods, who will lead the Network 2.0 integration as John Smith transitions to CEO of Freight, and how much structural cost savings remain in the DRIVE program in Q1. Despite raising his estimates and setting a December 2026 target, Ossenbeck acknowledges that FedEx remains “effectively a leveraged option on the trajectory of global trade,” which continues to be uncertain and volatile.
Stifel analyst J. Bruce Chan has lowered the price target for FedEx from $354 to $329 but maintains a "Buy" rating on the logistics company's stock. He notes that FedEx’s high-stakes restructuring will be a central focus as investors look ahead to the company’s fourth-quarter report on Tuesday. According to Chan, FedEx is entering what may be the most significant phase of its Network 2.0 transformation — one of three major operational overhauls currently underway.
The analyst hopes to gain more insight into the progress of the Express and Ground integration. He argues that “the potential for disruption is significant, as are the potential cost savings.”
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General Mills (GIS)
Morgan Stanley analyst Megan Clapp has lowered the price target for General Mills from $51 to $49 while maintaining an "Underweight" rating on the stock. Although the company’s fourth-quarter results were better than expected, Clapp describes them as being of "lower quality." While a wider-than-usual EPS range could offer "some cushion" and sequential volume share improvements are seen as "encouraging," the analyst considers the stock’s relative valuation "not cheap" and would like to see more substantial market share gains to gain confidence in a meaningful margin recovery.
Barclays analyst Andrew Lazar has lowered the price target for General Mills from $60 to $54 and maintains an "Equal Weight" rating on the stock following the company’s fourth-quarter report. He notes that, based on insights from a test of fresh pet food conducted two years ago, General Mills is now planning a nationwide rollout of fresh pet food under its Blue Buffalo brand. This initiative will be supported by multi-year investments aimed at boosting trial and brand awareness.
Megan Alexander Clapp, analyst at Morgan Stanley, has lowered the price target for General Mills from $53 to $51 and maintains an "Underweight" rating on the stock. She sees weak trends pointing to EPS risk for the fourth quarter and has reduced her Q4 EPS estimate from $0.70 to $0.68. The revised forecast is about 4% below consensus, reflecting the slowdown observed in recent scanner data trends.
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Lyft (LYFT)
TD Cowen analyst John Blackledge has upgraded Lyft from "Hold" to "Buy" and raised the price target from $16 to $21. He sees multiple future growth drivers for the ride-hailing specialist and Uber competitor, supported by strong execution from the current management team. This team has reoriented the company around a “customer-obsessed” strategy and introduced several innovations that have improved the driver experience — including the Price Lock feature.
Blackledge believes Lyft’s growing focus on “Tier 2” cities such as Charlotte and Indianapolis, as well as the potential benefits from its acquisition of the European taxi app FreeNow, should support further growth. He also highlights Lyft’s product innovations and partnerships — for example, with DoorDash — as additional catalysts.
Moreover, the analyst thinks investors are underestimating the opportunities autonomous vehicles could bring for Lyft. This summer, the company is expected to launch autonomous vehicles in Atlanta in partnership with May Mobility. In 2026, Lyft plans to introduce self-driving cars powered by Mobileye in Dallas, through a collaboration with Marubeni.
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McDonald’s (MCD)
KeyBanc analyst Eric Gonzalez has lowered the price target for McDonald’s from $340 to $325 while maintaining an "Overweight" rating on the stock. He believes the second quarter has been another highly competitive period for the burger fast-food sector, as consumers continue to cut back on spending and focus on brands that offer better value for money. Based on proprietary data and recent industry conversations, KeyBanc believes that McDonald’s U.S. system likely outperformed its two largest competitors in Q2. However, the absolute growth level may not be as strong as previously expected. Accordingly, Gonzalez has reduced his full-year estimate for McDonald’s U.S. sales growth from 1.7 percent to 1.1 percent, and lowered his EPS forecast for 2025 to $12.40. The estimate for 2026 stands at $13.50.
UBS analyst Dennis Geiger considers McDonald’s stock attractive following its recent pullback, viewing a positive second half in the U.S. as a potential catalyst and downside risks as limited. He maintains a "Buy" rating on the fast-food chain’s shares with a price target of $350. Geiger believes McDonald’s is well positioned to deliver solid sales in the second half of the year, supported by new products, value-enhancing initiatives, and marketing strategies that are likely to resonate—even if spending pressure among lower- and middle-income consumers persists.
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Meta (META)
Piper Sandler analyst Thomas Champion has raised the price target for Meta Platforms from $650 to $808 and maintains an "Overweight" rating on the parent company of Facebook. He sees Meta’s investments in AI as transformative for advertising technology, driving improved ad performance, higher conversion rates, and stronger returns on ad spend. New tools like GEM, Andromeda, and Lattice could push revenue growth into the mid-teens over several years. Champion, who names Meta his new "Top Large Cap Pick," also notes that higher ad prices are being driven by better conversion rates rather than declining user engagement.
UBS analyst Stephen Ju has raised the price target for Meta Platforms from $683 to $812 and maintains a "Buy" rating on the parent company of Facebook. He sees Meta benefiting from strong consumer and advertiser demand for artificial intelligence, with a long-term opportunity to generate additional revenue from a range of AI products. According to Ju, Meta is also not particularly vulnerable to the risk that corporate AI spending may grow more slowly than expected, as the company is itself a major user of its own AI technologies.
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Micron Technologies (MU)
Barclays – Tom O’Malley:
Raised the price target from $95 to $140 and reaffirmed the "Overweight" rating. He sees growth in the DRAM and NAND segments being driven by HBM and eSSD, respectively. However, core end markets like PCs and smartphones are expected to take longer to recover and are most affected by expanding tariffs.
Bank of America – Vivek Arya:
Maintains a "Neutral" rating but raises the price target from $84 to $140. He has increased revenue and EPS estimates for 2025 to 2027 by 4–6% and 13–23%, respectively. Despite the upgrade, he remains cautious due to pricing uncertainty in NAND and high ramp-up costs for new business lines, which limit visibility.
Citigroup – Christopher Danely:
Confirms his "Buy" rating and raises the price target from $130 to $150. Results and guidance exceeded expectations, primarily due to better-than-expected pricing and shipments. Danely notes that the upside was driven more by NAND than DRAM, which may explain the stock’s weakness post-call.
J.P. Morgan – Harlan Sur:
Maintains an "Overweight" rating and lifts the price target from $135 to $165. He sees a favourable short-term setup and expects demand to improve in the second half of the year, though possibly dampened by tariff-related headwinds and sluggish NAND trends. He has also raised his estimates for the coming year.
Morgan Stanley – Joseph Moore:
Raises the price target from $98 to $135 but retains the "Equal Weight" rating. Moore believes the major volatility is now behind, and he expects further improvement in 2025 due to strong AI demand. He doesn’t think any pull-forward effects or price drops in the May quarter should overshadow the broader AI-driven opportunity. Nonetheless, he sees better opportunities elsewhere in the semiconductor sector.
UBS – Timothy Arcuri:
Increases the price target from $120 to $155 and maintains a "Buy" rating. He notes that Micron met or exceeded the only expectations that really mattered to investors: HBM revenue and gross margin. While pull-forward effects may boost non-AI demand, particularly in NAND, he believes investor concerns are overdone — especially given HBM’s growing importance within the DRAM business.
Wells Fargo – Aaron Rakers:
Raises the price target from $150 to $170 and confirms an "Overweight" rating. He highlights HBM momentum and overall strength in the data center segment. Combined with inventory tightening, these factors should draw investor attention to the potential for further earnings upside.
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Microsoft (MSFT)
Morgan Stanley analyst Keith Weiss has raised the price target for Microsoft from $482 to $530 and maintains an "Overweight" rating. This update follows a revision of his AI revenue analysis based on capital expenditures and a refined OpenAI model that outlines its contribution to Azure.
While investors continue to debate the "return on investment" of rising capital outlays, Weiss sees Microsoft's returns on generative AI investments "becoming increasingly clear." He expresses growing confidence in the upward trajectory of Azure forecasts. In his view, Microsoft’s "best-in-class position for the upcoming GenAI innovation cycle, combined with strong execution," is driving an acceleration in the Azure business.
Dan Ives, analyst at Wedbush, has raised his price target for Microsoft from $515 to $600 and maintains an "Outperform" rating. He is “increasingly bullish” on Microsoft following recent customer checks in the artificial intelligence space. Ives believes a “massive adoption wave” of Copilot and Azure monetisation is now imminent. According to the analyst, many Microsoft clients are now focused on deploying enterprise AI applications across various industries — with financial services, government, and retail standing out most. He describes this as Microsoft’s “shining moment” and believes AI will reshape the company’s cloud growth trajectory.
Michael Turrin, analyst at Wells Fargo, has lifted his Microsoft price target from $565 to $585 and reaffirms an "Overweight" rating. He continues to see “a bright future for Microsoft, driven by sustained growth prospects in major IT spending categories,” and also points to continued margin expansion. Although the stock is trading near all-time highs, Turrin believes this is justified given Microsoft’s early lead in AI and its strong, entrenched market position. He forecasts that Microsoft's AI business could generate $100 billion in revenue by fiscal year 2029. The company has already scaled its AI business to $13 billion in annual recurring revenue in under three years — the “fastest product ramp in history,” according to Turrin. He also expects Microsoft’s AI assistant, Copilot, to become increasingly significant, projecting that it will reach critical mass by next year and eventually generate $12 billion in annual recurring revenue.
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Nike (NKE)
Barclays analyst Adrienne Yih has raised the price target for Nike from $53 to $64 and maintains an "Equal Weight" rating. The company’s fourth-quarter results exceeded revenue and earnings expectations, with gross margin in line with consensus estimates. Yih states that Nike’s Q1 guidance was “better than feared,” supported by a positive holiday order book, driven by the running and performance segments. Barclays believes margin improvement in the second half of the fiscal year is “in play” but cautions that a deteriorating sales-to-inventory ratio in Q4 could hold the company back.
Bank of America analyst Lorraine Hutchinson has raised the price target for Nike from $80 to $84 and continues to rate the stock as "Buy." She believes Nike has “put the worst behind it,” expects sequential revenue improvement, and forecasts a return to growth in the second half of the fiscal year. This follows Q4 results that met expectations and Q1 guidance forecasting a mid-single-digit revenue decline — a “notable improvement” over the 11 percent decline in Q4. Hutchinson has reduced her EPS estimate for FY 2025/26 by 20 cents to $1.60 due to lower gross margin assumptions factoring in tariffs, but raises the multiple to reflect increased confidence in Nike’s innovation pipeline and upcoming revenue rebound.
Citigroup analyst Paul Lejuez has increased the price target for Nike from $57 to $68 while maintaining a "Neutral" rating. The company’s Q4 revenue beat expectations, though gross margin was slightly weaker. Lejuez notes that management remains focused on a “reset” in the second half of 2026, and Q1 sales guidance was “better than market fears.” Citi still sees a balanced risk/reward outlook for the stock.
HSBC analyst Erwan Rambourg has upgraded Nike from "Hold" to "Buy" and raised the price target from $60 to $80. He believes “the turning point has finally arrived.” In his view, there is now “tangible evidence” that Nike has a path to recover sales in the near future and repair margins, despite a tariff-related headwind that could weigh on gross margin by 75 basis points in FY 2025/26. In addition to stronger sales momentum and easing margin pressure later in the year, Rambourg highlights that management remains committed to quality — for example, by repositioning Nike’s digital business as a full-price channel, which he believes will benefit the company long term.
J.P. Morgan analyst Matthew Boss has raised the price target for Nike from $56 to $64 and maintains a "Neutral" rating following the Q4 report. His bottom-up estimates point to a currency-adjusted demand trend of -8 percent in Q1, compared to management’s projection of a mid-single-digit decline, which would imply only a 100 basis point sequential improvement over Q4.
Morgan Stanley analyst Alex Straton has raised the price target for Nike from $61 to $64 and continues to rate the stock as "Equal Weight." While she believes Nike still has “a long road to turnaround,” she sees management’s “appropriately low expectations” for Q1 and FY 2025/26 as a “refreshing change from the past two years.”
Piper Sandler analyst Anna Andreeva has raised the price target for Nike from $70 to $80 and maintains an "Overweight" rating following the quarterly report. She notes that Nike is finally making progress in gradually introducing innovation and streamlining its Classics line.
UBS analyst Jay Sole has increased the price target for Nike from $56 to $63 and keeps a "Neutral" rating. He believes the Q4 report suggests Nike’s inventory situation is improving and the sales outlook is stronger than expected. However, UBS remains unconvinced that Nike’s fundamentals will continue to improve in the near term, especially given the ongoing tariff risk.
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NVIDIA (NVDA)
Loop Capital analyst Ananda Baruah has raised the price target for NVIDIA from $175 to $250 and maintains a "Buy" rating on the stock. Based on his supply chain research, Baruah estimates that spending on hyperscale and AI infrastructure, AI technologies, and AI accelerators alone could reach around $2 trillion by 2028, assuming current compute economics.
While he acknowledges that this would imply a $6 trillion market capitalisation for NVIDIA, he argues that “the math simply works” as the market enters what he describes as the next “golden wave” of generative AI.
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Oracle (ORCL)
Stifel analyst Brad Reback has upgraded Oracle from "Hold" to "Buy" and raised the price target from $180 to $250. He believes Oracle’s cloud acceleration appears to be sustainable, which could lead to further gains. For the next two fiscal years, he forecasts Oracle’s total cloud revenue could grow at a high 30-percent rate. Reback also notes that Oracle has already benefited from cost-cutting measures and management’s focus on efficiency. Total revenue grew by 8 percent over the past year, while headcount and overall operating expenses increased by only 2 and 5 percent, respectively. Although higher capital expenditures may put short-term pressure on gross margins, the analyst is confident that this management team has a strong handle on spending. Going forward, Oracle is expected to rely less on headcount expansion to drive growth. This combination of cost discipline and sustainable cloud growth, according to Reback, should enable Oracle to achieve accelerated earnings growth starting in 2027.
Berenberg analyst Nay Soe Naing has raised the price target for Oracle from $180 to $202 while maintaining a "Hold" rating on the stock. Unlike previous AI tools that primarily enhanced user productivity, the analyst believes AI agents can now execute business tasks with full autonomy and decision-making capability. This technological advancement, according to Soe Naing, "unlocks a fundamentally new layer of value in AI adoption for enterprises."
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Paypal (PYPL)
Piper Sandler analyst Patrick Moley has initiated coverage on PayPal with a "Neutral" rating and a price target of $74. He views PayPal as currently undergoing a strategic transformation under new management, which is aiming to build a monetisable omnichannel commerce hub for its 436 million accounts.
Moley is “cautiously optimistic” about the company’s ability to capitalise on this significant opportunity but believes it will likely require substantial investment over the coming years, which could weigh on margins. As a result, he considers the stock to be fairly valued at a modest discount relative to its peers.
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Robinhood (HOOD)
Barclays analyst Benjamin Budish has reaffirmed his "Overweight" rating on Robinhood following a meeting with the company's management. He noted that the company was “overall quite optimistic” about tokenisation and expressed confidence in its future potential to capture market share in the wallet segment. Management’s comments on artificial intelligence were also positive. Budish believes tokenisation represents “a very long-term but potentially quite significant opportunity” for Robinhood.
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Roblox (RBLX)
J.P. Morgan analyst Cory Carpenter has raised the price target for Roblox from $100 to $120 and maintains an "Overweight" rating on the online gaming specialist's stock. The game "Grow A Garden" has reportedly reached around 20 million concurrent players on each of the past two weekends. The analyst describes this as a "historic level of player engagement" and notes that it is "an order of magnitude the gaming industry, including Roblox, has never seen before." The rise of "Grow A Garden" has coincided with a more than 100 percent increase in Roblox's share price since early April. As a result, estimates for Roblox are being significantly revised upward.
Wells Fargo analyst Ken Gawrelski has raised the price target for Roblox from $78 to $116 and maintains an "Overweight" rating on the stock. Developer and agency checks suggest that the online gaming platform is positioned for an acceleration in advertising by the end of 2025. The hit game "Grow a Garden" is expected to contribute 10 points to bookings in 2025.
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SAP (SAP)
Charles Brennan, analyst at Jefferies, has lowered the price target for SAP from €300 to €290 but maintains a "Buy" rating on the software company's stock. While there has been some recent profit-taking in SAP shares, Brennan argues that SAP “remains the best long-term growth story in the sector.” He believes that market expectations have already been reset and that the actual results “will reshuffle the deck.”
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Snowflake (SNOW)
Morgan Stanley analyst Sanjit Singh has upgraded Snowflake from "Equal Weight" to "Overweight" and raised the price target from $200 to $262. He believes that growth in the AI sector could provide a meaningful boost to the cloud software company’s stock.
After several years of decelerating growth and increasing investor concerns over Snowflake’s positioning in AI and machine learning, Singh sees improved long-term growth prospects under the leadership of CEO Sridhar Ramaswamy. While it is still early in the AI/ML and applications space, he notes that the rollout of AI-driven innovations within Snowflake’s core business — combined with customers placing greater emphasis on modernising their data infrastructure to support AI strategies — has led to a stabilisation in the core data warehousing segment.
Singh expects that Data Engineering and AI could drive a compound annual revenue growth rate of at least 20 percent through 2030.
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Spotify (SPOT)
UBS analysts have raised the price target for Spotify from $680 to $895 and maintain a "Buy" rating on the audio streaming provider’s stock. UBS sees several catalysts ahead, including the expansion of audiobooks into new markets, the launch of new subscription tiers, price increases, and growing advertising revenues — all aimed at improving monetisation and sustaining 16 percent revenue growth through the end of 2028. The analysts expect Spotify’s Q2 results to reflect continued mid-teens revenue growth and annual margin expansion.
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Tesla (TSLA)
Benchmark analyst Mickey Legg has raised the price target for Tesla from $350 to $475 and maintains a "Buy" rating on the electric vehicle maker's stock. The upgrade follows the successful launch of Tesla’s robotaxi operations in Austin. While the rollout remains limited for now, Legg views it as reflecting a controlled and safety-focused approach.
He argues that gaining the confidence of regulators and the public is crucial and could enable rapid expansion. The analyst believes Tesla’s long-term thesis remains “intact” and continues to list the company as Benchmark’s “Top Pick for 2025.”
UBS analyst Joseph Spak expects Tesla’s second-quarter deliveries to come in at around 366,000 vehicles — about 10 percent below consensus estimates — and anticipates that demand will remain challenging. While he believes the quarter may not look favourable, he sees it as an opportunity for CEO Elon Musk to refocus attention on his long-term vision. Spak maintains a "Sell" rating on Tesla shares, with a price target of $215.
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The Walt Disney Company (DIS)
Guggenheim analyst Michael Morris has raised the price target for Walt Disney from $120 to $140 and maintains a "Buy" rating on the stock. With Hulu now fully under Disney’s control, the company is well positioned to pursue a unified direct-to-consumer strategy, including the upcoming launch of the ESPN streaming service. According to Morris, Disney can also increasingly leverage bundle options to generate additional revenue.
Jefferies analyst Ed Alter has upgraded Walt Disney from "Hold" to "Buy" and raised the price target from $100 to $144. He highlights two new cruise ships set to launch in the first quarter of next year, which he estimates could boost Disney’s revenue by $1 to $1.5 billion. Alter also praises Disney’s direct-to-consumer business, especially the content and sports programming available on the Disney+ platform. Recent successes include titles like "Moana 2" and "Lilo & Stitch", while audiences are looking forward to upcoming releases such as "Avatar 3", "Zootopia 2", and the new ESPN streaming service. Recent data also show stronger subscriber growth for Disney+.
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Uber (UBER)
Canaccord analyst George Gianarikas has downgraded Uber from "Buy" to "Hold" and lowered the price target from $90 to $84 after initiating coverage. While the analyst sees a potentially bright future for the company — offering value through hybrid human-robot networks, strong on-the-ground operations, and other tactical elements in the world of autonomous vehicles — he also considers an alternative scenario. In that case, a few dominant autonomous vehicle "giants" could end up controlling the value chain, leaving Uber and Lyft reminiscent of the "golden age" of human drivers.
Gianarikas believes the outcome is “truly unclear.” For now, he expects continued growth and notes that both companies have strong service platforms and that ride-hailing continues to expand. Canaccord’s near-term concern is multiple compression. The analyst sees uncertainty and the potential for “rapid disruption” as the autonomous vehicle market begins to take shape.
What's Coming Up This Week
What to Watch This Week
This week, investors will be watching the ECB Forum in Sintra closely for any fresh signals on the direction of global monetary policy. Particular attention will be paid to comments from central bank leaders, especially regarding the future path of interest rates.
Tesla's upcoming delivery figures will also be under the spotlight, as markets look for clues about the state of demand—especially in light of recent softness in European sales.
Meanwhile, earnings from Constellation Brands will offer insights into shifting consumer trends in the beverage industry, with analysts looking to assess how resilient spending is in the face of broader economic uncertainty.
Tuesday, July 1
The ECB Forum in Sintra begins, kicking off with a dinner speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde.
Investors will look to the forum for insights into future monetary policy, especially from Lagarde, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda, who will speak in a joint panel on Wednesday.
Key US data due:
Construction Spending (May)
ISM Manufacturing PMI (June)
JOLTs Job Openings (May)
Constellation Brands reports earnings after the US close. Analysts expect $2.55B in revenue and $3.31 EPS.
Wednesday, July 2
Central bank panel at the ECB Forum with Lagarde, Powell, Ueda, and the Bank of England Governor.
ADP Employment Report (June)
ISM Services PMI (June)
Tesla expected to report Q2 vehicle deliveries. Consensus ranges from 365,000 to 390,000 units, with focus on European demand weakness.
Thursday, July 3
US June Jobs Report (released one day early due to US holiday on Friday)
Forecast: ~120,000–125,000 new jobs
Unemployment rate: expected to stay at 4.2%
Avg. hourly earnings: +0.3% MoM
Chinese Services PMI (Caixin) due, offering insight into private-sector demand.
Friday, July 4
US markets closed for Independence Day
Very limited global trading activity expected.
Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. It does not consider your personal objectives, financial situation, or needs. You should consider whether the information is appropriate for your circumstances and seek professional advice before making any investment decisions. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and the application of any strategy may not eliminate the risk of loss. Market conditions, volatility, and unforeseen events can impact outcomes, and past performance is not indicative of future results.
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